The $65 Billion Gap and Why the Current Model Won’t Bridge It
Africa has produced one of the most watched fintech growth stories in the world. Sub-Saharan Africa alone processes over $800 billion in mobile money transactions annually, and mobile money accounts represent nearly 70% of the global total. The continent has demonstrated, more convincingly than any other region, that financial services can scale on mobile phones without the traditional banking infrastructure that took decades and trillions of dollars to build in the West.
But the same BCG 2026 analysis that projects $65 billion in fintech revenues by 2030 includes a sobering diagnosis: payments currently represent 70–80% of fintech revenues, and the shift to a deeper revenue mix—digital lending, embedded finance, B2B services—will not happen automatically. Over 50% of African adults still lack formal credit access. The SME financing shortfall across the continent exceeds $330 billion. Cross-border payment fees remain 6–10%, among the world’s highest.
These numbers do not describe a market on the verge of organic breakthrough. They describe a market where the foundation has been laid—mobile reach, digital identity, payment accounts—but where the next layer of infrastructure has not been built.
At the 3i Africa Summit in Accra in May 2026, Haruna Shaibu, CEO of Mobile Money Fintech Limited (MMFL), named the structural problem directly: “much of Africa’s digital finance growth has been driven by duplication rather than transformation.” He called for “big pipes”—interconnected infrastructure enabling seamless system-to-system transactions across borders and institutions—using a road network analogy: builders must construct the main arteries first, then connect the feeders. Without main arteries, having 400 fintech apps is just 400 dead-end roads.
What “Interoperability” Actually Means—and Why It’s Hard
Interoperability is one of those words that everyone in African fintech agrees is important and almost no one has successfully delivered at continental scale. Understanding why requires going beyond the slogan.
At the technical level, interoperability means that a payment initiated on MTN Mobile Money in Côte d’Ivoire can settle to an M-PESA account in Kenya without the sender or receiver needing to know or care about the underlying systems. This requires standardized messaging protocols (ISO 20022 is the emerging global standard), shared KYC/AML data exchange frameworks, and settlement infrastructure that clears net positions between systems without requiring each pair of operators to maintain bilateral agreements.
At the business level, interoperability is a collective action problem. Every operator that opens their platform to competitors potentially cannibalizes their own switching costs and data moat. The incentive to participate in shared infrastructure is only compelling when the alternative—remaining a closed system—yields lower growth than the expanded market that interoperability enables. This is why interoperability almost never happens spontaneously and almost always requires either regulatory mandate or a neutral third-party infrastructure provider.
The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is the continent’s most serious attempt at the latter. Operated by Afreximbank and the African Union, PAPSS provides a settlement layer for intra-African payments without routing through US dollar correspondent banking—addressing the 6–10% cross-border fee problem directly. Algeria joined PAPSS in 2025. However, BCG’s analysis notes that fewer than 10% of fintechs have comprehensive, interoperable data systems—meaning PAPSS and similar infrastructure faces adoption barriers even where the technical layer exists.
Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson P. Asiama, also speaking at the 3i Africa Summit, announced plans for a continental fintech sandbox, licence passporting discussions among African regulators, and the Virtual Asset Service Providers Act 2025 (Act 1154) as components of a broader regulatory modernization. Ghana’s economy grew 6% in 2025—providing political backing for financial innovation at a moment when it can be credibly framed as growth-enabling rather than risk-generating.
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What Founders and Investors Should Do About It
The 3i Africa Summit analysis points to a structural reorientation that affects every actor in the African fintech ecosystem. Here is what it means in practice for the three roles most directly affected.
1. Founders: Stop Building the 401st Payment App and Build Infrastructure Primitives Instead
The duplication problem that MMFL CEO Haruna Shaibu identified is not abstract—it is visible in funding data. Africa’s fintech deal landscape is dominated by consumer payment apps, digital wallets, and remittance platforms. The infrastructure layer—settlement rails, shared KYC pipes, cross-border reconciliation services, API gateways connecting mobile money operators—is dramatically underfunded relative to its importance.
The BCG $65 billion projection is contingent on credit, lending, and B2B services growing from roughly 20–30% of fintech revenues today to 50% by 2030. That transition requires founders who build the credit data infrastructure (shared bureau-equivalent systems, alternative data aggregators), the B2B payment rails (invoice financing platforms, supply chain payment networks), and the compliance middleware (multi-jurisdiction AML/KYC orchestration) that enable lenders, insurers, and embedded finance providers to operate efficiently. These are harder products to build, require more patient capital, and have longer sales cycles—but they compound into defensible platforms rather than commoditized apps.
2. Investors: Require Portfolio Companies to Demonstrate Interoperability Roadmaps
The short-cycle venture funding model that has dominated African fintech investment is misaligned with infrastructure. A payment app can reach product-market fit in 12 months and show user growth metrics that justify a Series A. A cross-border settlement rail or a shared credit bureau requires 3–5 years of regulatory engagement, network building, and loss-making operation before it generates the returns that justify infrastructure investment.
The patient capital call at the 3i Africa Summit is not just a rhetorical request—it is a structural requirement. Investors who want to participate in the $65 billion opportunity need to either extend their fund timelines and return expectations for infrastructure bets, or explicitly require portfolio companies to articulate how their product plugs into interoperable rails rather than building proprietary walled gardens. The Brazil PIX and India UPI examples cited in BCG’s analysis are instructive: both succeeded because they were government-mandated and government-funded, removing the commercial investor timeline pressure entirely. In the absence of such mandates across all 54 African countries, patient private capital is the only viable alternative.
3. Enterprise Finance Leaders: Map Your Cross-Border Payment Costs and Present the Data to Your Banks
The 6–10% cross-border payment fee that BCG documents is not a fixed cost of doing business in Africa—it is a price inefficiency that informed buyers can begin to address now. Enterprise treasury teams and CFOs at companies operating across multiple African markets should formally audit their cross-border payment costs, map the corridors where fees are highest, and present that data as a business case to their banking partners for PAPSS-based alternatives.
This is not a passive “wait for infrastructure to improve” position. The pressure from enterprise customers is one of the primary levers that drives banks to implement PAPSS integrations. A corporate that says “we will move $5 million per month in cross-border payments to whichever bank gives us PAPSS settlement by Q4” creates a commercial incentive for bank adoption that policy advocacy alone cannot generate.
What Comes Next
The 3i Africa Summit’s emphasis on patient capital and interoperability reflects a maturation in how Africa’s fintech leaders—as opposed to its early-stage investors—understand the next phase of growth. The first wave was about reach: proving that financial services could scale on mobile phones across the continent. That wave succeeded.
The second wave, as BCG frames it, is about depth: credit, insurance, wealth management, B2B payments. Depth requires infrastructure that reach does not. The data bureau that enables a lender to underwrite a Ghanaian SME, the settlement rail that makes a Congolese supplier’s payment to an Algerian equipment manufacturer as cheap as a domestic transfer, the compliance middleware that lets a fintech pass KYC data between jurisdictions without re-collecting it from the user—these are the “big pipes” that Haruna Shaibu called for.
Building them will require a different kind of capital, a different kind of founder, and a different kind of regulatory cooperation than the first wave demanded. The 3i Africa Summit suggests that at least some of the continent’s leaders understand this. The question is whether the capital pools—currently concentrated in short-cycle venture funds optimized for consumer-facing apps—will reorient fast enough to fund the infrastructure before the 2030 window closes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 3i Africa Summit and why does it matter for fintech strategy?
The 3i Africa Summit is an annual pan-African convening of fintech leaders, investors, regulators, and enterprise finance executives. The May 2026 edition in Accra featured keynotes from MMFL CEO Haruna Shaibu and Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson P. Asiama. It matters because it surfaces the operational consensus of practitioners—not just investor narratives—on where African fintech is heading and what structural gaps remain.
What is “patient capital” and why does Africa’s digital infrastructure need it?
Patient capital refers to investment with longer time horizons and lower short-term return expectations than standard venture capital. African fintech infrastructure—settlement rails, shared credit bureaus, cross-border compliance middleware—requires 3–5 years to reach commercial viability. Standard 2–3 year VC deployment cycles and 10-year fund lives with return milestones at year 5–6 are structurally misaligned with this timeline. Patient capital sources include development finance institutions, sovereign wealth funds, and specialized infrastructure funds with 15–20 year horizons.
How does BCG’s $65 billion Africa fintech projection break down by segment?
BCG’s 2026 report projects Africa fintech revenues growing from roughly $10 billion today to $65+ billion by 2030—a sixfold increase. Currently, payments represent 70–80% of revenues. By 2030, digital lending, embedded finance, and B2B services could contribute up to 50% of total revenues as the market shifts from reach (mobile account access) to depth (credit, insurance, wealth management). This transition is contingent on shared infrastructure—credit data systems, interoperable rails, compliance middleware—being built in the next 3–4 years.
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Sources & Further Reading
- Interconnected Fintech Systems Will Drive Africa’s Digital Finance Growth — BFT Online (3i Africa Summit)
- Patient Capital Required to Deepen Africa’s Digital Ecosystem — BFT Online (3i Africa Summit)
- Beyond Payments: Unlocking Africa’s Second FinTech Wave — BCG 2026
- Africa’s Fintech Second Wave Takes Shape — Pan African Visions














